Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 1x
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rule-based, 1x fund that shifts between SPY (stocks) and SHY (short-term bonds) based on RSI momentum of SPY vs SHY across several lookbacks and SPY volatility thresholds, aiming to reduce risk when momentum weakens and to remain in stock exposure when momentum is strong.
Every day the fund compares SPY to SHY using a momentum measure (RSI) over several lookbacks (14–42 days). If SPY looks weaker than SHY on a given window and SPY’s recent volatility is not too high (below 1%, 1.5%, or 2% depending on the condition), the model shifts toward SHY (or cash) to reduce risk. If SPY looks stronger, it tilts toward SPY. The process is repeated across multiple windows to confirm signals, and the weights are adjusted so the total stays at 100% with no leverage. The two assets used are SPY (large-cap stocks) and SHY (short-term bonds).
Out-of-sample, this 1x SPY/SHY strategy delivers stronger risk-adjusted performance than the S&P 500: higher Sharpe (≈1.90 vs 1.38), lower drawdown (13.3% vs 18.8%), and ~18.5% annualized return under disciplined RSI-based momentum rules.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,120.28% | 11.26% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.66 | |
| 822.44% | 9.94% | -1.77% | 0.63% | 1.17 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$92,244.30Regulatory Fees
$545.71
Total Slippage
$3,484.71
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Defensive momentum strategy, spy vs shy, rsi-based signal, multi-window checks, volatility filter, daily rebalance, 1x leverage