Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 1x
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A cautious, rules-based switch between SPY (stocks) and SHY (short‑term Treasuries). It owns stocks only when recent stock volatility is calm and SPY looks “cool” vs SHY; otherwise it parks in SHY. Fifteen small signals vote; equal‑weighted, rebalanced daily.
Every day, 15 small “checks” vote between two funds: SPY (US stocks) and SHY (1–3yr US Treasuries).
- First, each check asks: Are SPY’s recent daily swings over 2–8 weeks calm (under 1%, 1.5%, or 2%)? If not, it picks SHY.
- If calm, it compares a simple “hot vs. cold” score (RSI). Lower RSI = more beaten‑down. It buys whichever has the lower RSI (SPY or SHY).
- Your money is split equally across all 15 votes. Rebalanced daily.
Adaptive SPY/SHY strategy offers superior risk-adjusted results vs the S&P 500: out-of-sample Sharpe ~1.90 (vs ~1.38), lower drawdown ~13.3% (vs ~18.8%), and Calmar ~1.39—more upside with less risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,120.28% | 11.26% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.66 | |
| 822.44% | 9.94% | -1.77% | 0.63% | 1.17 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$92,244.30Regulatory Fees
$545.71
Total Slippage
$3,484.71
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/risk-off, volatility filter, rsi, ensemble, spy vs shy, defensive equity, daily rebalance