Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY | 1x
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
A very cautious, rules‑based switch between SPY (U.S. stocks) and SHY (short‑term Treasuries). It buys SPY only when markets are calm and stocks look briefly weak vs bonds; otherwise it sits in SHY. Decisions are averaged across 15 lookbacks, rechecked daily.
Each day, your money is split into 15 slices. For each slice (using 2–8 week windows), it first asks if SPY (S&P 500 stocks) has been calm (daily swings under 1%, 1.5%, or 2%). If not, it holds SHY (1–3yr U.S. Treasuries). If calm, it compares a simple 0–100 “strength” score (RSI): it buys SPY only when SPY’s score is lower (more oversold) than SHY’s; otherwise it holds SHY. The slices are averaged, so you can own some SPY and some SHY.
Defensive, out-of-sample edge: Sharpe ~1.90 vs SPY ~1.38; max drawdown ~13.3% vs 18.8%; Calmar ~1.39. A steadier path to ~18.5% annualized returns via a rules-based SPY/SHY mix that protects capital.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,139.42% | 11.35% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.67 | |
| 836.91% | 10.03% | 0.54% | 0.04% | 1.18 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$93,690.96Regulatory Fees
$545.71
Total Slippage
$3,484.71
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Defensive tactical allocation, volatility filter, mean‑reversion (rsi), spy vs shy, daily rebalance, u.s. stocks and treasuries