Cautious Fund Surfing | 1x
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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About
A cautious switching strategy that only buys the S&P 500 when the market looks calm and stocks appear temporarily weak; otherwise it hides in a defensive mix of the U.S. dollar, gold, and consumer staples.
This strategy checks the U.S. stock market 15 different ways using short- to medium-term lookback periods and different “calmness” thresholds.
If the market looks calm enough, it may buy SPY, which tracks the S&P 500 (large U.S. companies). But only if stocks have recently been weaker than SHY, a short-term Treasury bond fund, suggesting a possible rebound setup.
If not, it moves into a defensive mix: UUP (U.S. dollar), GLD (gold), and XLP (consumer staples stocks).
Out-of-sample performance favors this strategy: higher risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ≈1.73 vs ~1.33 for the S&P 500), lower drawdown (≈14.8% vs 18.8%), and positive alpha, while still capturing upside in calm markets and defending in turbulence.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07 | 0.4 | 0.53 | 0.73 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 652.73% | 10.8% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.62 | |
| 740.48% | 11.42% | 3.21% | 2.26% | 1.07 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$84,047.84Regulatory Fees
$400.90
Total Slippage
$2,478.92
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, defensive rotation, ensemble, volatility filter, mean reversion, us equity, gold, dollar, consumer staples
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total