CAOS to QQQ the BIL Beater
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily 2-asset rotation: if CAOS has gained more than ~2% over the last 7 days, invest 100% in QQQ; otherwise invest 100% in CAOS. The idea is to chase growth when CAOS signals strength, and switch to CAOS’s hedging exposure when CAOS hasn’t shown short-term strength. Simple, binary, and fully allocated to a single ETF each day (no diversification within the rule).
- Every day, evaluate CAOS’s performance over the last 7 days.
- If CAOS’s 7-day cumulative return > 2%, allocate 100% to QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1).
- If CAOS’s 7-day cumulative return <= 2%, allocate 100% to CAOS (Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF).
- Rebalance is daily, and at any time you hold in effect either QQQ or CAOS only (no diversification to other assets in this rule).
- The approach uses a simple, hard threshold rather than a probabilistic or multi-factor model. The goal is to ride growth when CAOS has recently done well and preserve risk protection when CAOS hasn’t.
- Exposures are purely equity-based (QQQ is growth-oriented; CAOS provides tail-risk hedging). The design aims to outperform a cash proxy by tactically choosing between two equity-related instruments.
- This is a high-concentration, conditional tilt rather than a diversified portfolio, so expect higher idiosyncratic risk relative to a broad market mix.
Out-of-sample: a 2-asset rotation (QQQ/CAOS) delivering superior risk-adjusted return vs SPY — Calmar 4.28, Sharpe 2.08, max drawdown under 1%, and near-zero beta—great downside protection with steady upside potential.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 | 0.2 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78.79% | 21.46% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 1.37 | |
| 43.28% | 12.79% | 0.28% | 0.77% | 1.55 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$14,327.95Regulatory Fees
$4.84
Total Slippage
$33.26
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 13, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, tactical allocation, binary/rotation, momentum-based signal