bsmr230105 | TQQQ or not | BlackSwan MeanRev BondSignal
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules-based switcher: ride the NASDAQ via TQQQ when trends are healthy, hide in T‑Bills when risk is high, and occasionally buy UVXY around extremes. Signals use simple “heat” (RSI), trend, drawdown, and bond‑vs‑stock checks to manage risk.
It flips among: TQQQ (3x Nasdaq), BIL (T‑Bills/cash), and UVXY (volatility). It checks daily signals:
- Trend: is QQQ above its 25‑day average?
- “Heat” (RSI 0–100: high=hot, low=cold).
- Recent drawdowns and bond‑vs‑stock strength.
In uptrends it holds TQQQ. After sharp drops it buys TQQQ if oversold, else BIL. If things look too hot or a big bounce follows a crash, it briefly buys UVXY.
Out-of-sample return: ~35.7%/yr vs S&P ~17.4%; Sharpe ~0.86; Calmar ~1.01. A Nasdaq-heavy, rules-based strategy using BIL and brief UVXY hedges to chase upside while managing risk. Drawdowns can run higher (~35% vs SPY ~19%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | 1.02 | 0.11 | 0.34 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 39,417,104.32% | 144.42% | -1.65% | -6.11% | 2 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,941,720,431.77Regulatory Fees
$12,209,360.72
Total Slippage
$87,803,673.57
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 21, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend-following, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, risk management, volatility hedge
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks