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bsmr230105 | TQQQ or not | BlackSwan MeanRev BondSignal
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A regime-based, rule-driven strategy that toggles between TQQQ, UVXY, and cash/bonds using RSI and other momentum/volatility signals to exploit mean reversion in tech and protect against volatility shocks.
NutHow it works
A hierarchical rules engine decides what to own at any moment. It starts by checking if tech is in extreme condition (TQQQ RSI overbought). If so, it goes into UVXY to capture volatility. If not, it assesses broader volatility and market strength/weakness signals to decide whether volatility hedges are still warranted or if a mean-reversion play on TQQQ is more appropriate (buy TQQQ when it looks oversold). If neither applies, it looks at cash/bond signals to determine a safer stance (cash via BIL or bond proxies like TMF, BND, IEF, TLT). The engine uses mostly single-asset allocations (often 100% to the chosen exposure) with occasional partial allocations (e.g., 85/15 splits) in some branches. Signals are derived from momentum (RSI), recent returns, max drawdown, and relative strength comparisons between markets (stocks vs bonds) and instruments (QQQ vs SPY). The overall aim is to protect against big downside events while exploiting short-term mean reversion in tech and selecting safer assets when risk rises. Notes: - RSI is a momentum metric (overbought/oversold) for a given ticker over a window of days. - UVXY is a short-term volatility bet; TQQQ is a high-risk tech bet. - BIL and bonds provide ballast and reduce drawdown in risk-off regimes.
CheckmarkValue prop
Outperforming S&P with material upside: ~35.7% annualized vs ~17.4%, aided by regime-switching, volatility hedges, and a tech mean-reversion tilt. Built-in risk controls and cash/bond ballast aim to protect in shocks while chasing bigger gains.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
AlphaBetaR2R
0.861.020.110.34
Performance Metrics
Cumulative ReturnAnnualized ReturnTrailing 1M ReturnTrailing 3M ReturnSharpe Ratio
669.43%15.2%-1.77%0.2%0.93
39,417,104.32%144.42%-1.65%-6.11%2
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,941,720,431.77
Regulatory Fees
$12,209,360.72
Total Slippage
$87,803,673.57
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 21, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime-switching, leveraged etfs, volatility hedging, mean reversion, bond/cash tilt
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toBIL. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 23.68%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 35.54%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.