bsmr230105 | TQQQ or not | BlackSwan MeanRev BondSignal
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A tactical switch that goes all-in to one of three: TQQQ for upside, BIL (T‑bills) for safety, or UVXY to hedge during extremes—using simple signals on trend, selloff intensity, and bond-market stress.
It rotates among three places:
- TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100) when trend is up or after deep dips that look ready to bounce.
- BIL (T‑bills, cash-like) when stocks/bonds show near-term stress.
- UVXY (volatility hedge) when markets look overheated or after a sharp “dead cat” bounce.
Signals used: short-term momentum (RSI), 6‑day/1‑day drops, 10‑day drawdowns, and price vs 25‑day average.
Out-of-sample: ~35.7% annualized return vs S&P 17.4%, positive alpha, Calmar ~1.0. Higher drawdowns (~35.5% vs 18.8%), but gains hinge on targeted tech rallies with built-in hedges and cash protection.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | 1.02 | 0.11 | 0.34 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 681.5% | 15.36% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.94 | |
| 41,279,222.22% | 145.69% | 4.53% | -7.44% | 2.01 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,127,932,221.76Regulatory Fees
$11,880,718.47
Total Slippage
$85,439,789.29
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 21, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged tech etf, tactical allocation, trend + mean reversion, volatility hedge, risk-on/risk-off, market timing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks