bsmr230105 | TQQQ or not | BlackSwan MeanRev BondSignal
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A high-risk market-timing strategy that usually bets hard on leveraged Nasdaq stocks, but switches to a volatility fund or cash-like T-bills when the market looks overheated, stressed, or unstable.
This strategy makes one big choice at a time: aggressive tech stocks, a volatility hedge, or cash-like T-bills.
It usually wants to own TQQQ, a fund that moves about 3x the Nasdaq-100, so it heavily leans toward big tech/growth stocks.
If that market looks too hot, or too chaotic, it switches to UVXY, which tends to jump when fear spikes. If conditions look risky but not favorable, it parks in BIL, a very short-term Treasury fund.
Out-of-sample returns ~19.5% vs ~15.5% for the S&P, with tactical hedges to ride tech rallies and protect in chaos. Higher upside, but expect larger drawdowns during volatile regimes.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.81 | 1.04 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 786.38% | 15.6% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.95 | |
| 41,034,426.74% | 135.95% | -10.02% | -8.22% | 1.94 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,103,452,674.45Regulatory Fees
$12,921,777.44
Total Slippage
$124,647,090.97
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 21, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, leveraged equity, volatility hedge, mean reversion, trend following, risk management, nasdaq, bond signal
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks