Broke as a Joke (Recession Plays)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules-based playbook: follow the market trend; in uptrends own broad US stocks (with a long‑bond ballast when momentum is strong). In sharp selloffs, buy short‑term tech bounces; otherwise, sit in defensive stocks and short‑term bonds during downturns.
1) Check trend: is the S&P 500 (SPY) above its 200‑day average?
• If yes: if momentum is strong (RSI>60 = steady buying), hold ~55% long US Treasuries (TLT) and 45% split across SPY/QQQ/DIA/VTI (broad US stocks). If momentum is only OK, split across SPY/QQQ/DIA.
• If no: if the Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) is very washed‑out (RSI<31), take a short‑term bounce in 2x QLD/ROM. Otherwise, go defensive: ~50% short‑term bonds (BSV) and ~50% in staple/healthcare stocks (e.g., KO, WMT, MCD, JNJ).
Out-of-sample edge: ~25.1% annualized return vs SPY’s ~23.2%, with Calmar ~1.31. A rules-based trend/momentum system adds diversification and opportunistic rebounds while containing drawdowns, delivering higher upside with disciplined risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 17, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, momentum, defensive, recession, us equities, us treasuries, short-term bonds, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc.
Stocks
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
Stocks
KO
Coca-Cola Company
Stocks
KR
The Kroger Co.
Stocks
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Stocks
MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation
Stocks
PEP
PepsiCo, Inc.
Stocks