Broke as a Joke (Recession Plays)
Today’s Change (Jun 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules-based playbook: follow the market trend; in uptrends own broad US stocks (with a long‑bond ballast when momentum is strong). In sharp selloffs, buy short‑term tech bounces; otherwise, sit in defensive stocks and short‑term bonds during downturns.
1) Check trend: is the S&P 500 (SPY) above its 200‑day average?
• If yes: if momentum is strong (RSI>60 = steady buying), hold ~55% long US Treasuries (TLT) and 45% split across SPY/QQQ/DIA/VTI (broad US stocks). If momentum is only OK, split across SPY/QQQ/DIA.
• If no: if the Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) is very washed‑out (RSI<31), take a short‑term bounce in 2x QLD/ROM. Otherwise, go defensive: ~50% short‑term bonds (BSV) and ~50% in staple/healthcare stocks (e.g., KO, WMT, MCD, JNJ).
Out-of-sample annualized return 25.5% vs SPY 23%, with Calmar ~1.33—stronger risk-adjusted growth. A trend/momentum framework plus a bond/defensive ballast adapts to regimes and controls drawdowns across 1,280 testing days.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.82 | 0.59 | 0.77 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 635.49% | 10.97% | 1.36% | 13.5% | 0.63 | |
| 7,060.33% | 24.96% | 4.31% | 16.61% | 1.15 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$716,032.94Regulatory Fees
$1,237.65
Total Slippage
$10,125.09
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 17, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, momentum, defensive, recession, us equities, us treasuries, short-term bonds, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc.
Stocks
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
Stocks
KO
Coca-Cola Company
Stocks
KR
The Kroger Co.
Stocks
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Stocks
MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation
Stocks
PEP
PepsiCo, Inc.
Stocks