A market-timing strategy that switches between major U.S. stock funds, Treasury bonds, and defensive “recession” stocks—and occasionally makes an aggressive rebound bet on beaten-down tech.

This strategy first checks whether the U.S. stock market looks healthy by comparing the S&P 500 (SPY) to its long-term trend. If the market is healthy, it buys big U.S. stock funds, and sometimes adds a large position in long-term Treasury bonds. If the market looks weak, it usually shifts to safer areas: short-term bonds plus “recession-resistant” stocks like Coca-Cola, Walmart, Costco, McDonald’s, Kroger, and Johnson & Johnson. But if tech has fallen very hard very quickly, it makes a short-term, aggressive bet on a tech rebound using leveraged funds.

Out-of-sample, this regime-switching strategy targets higher risk-adjusted returns than the S&P 500: ~22.2% annualized vs 20.9%, Calmar ~1.15 and Sharpe ~1.10, using defensive bets plus selective tech rebounds to protect downside and capture upside.