Brian's Tweak (set dates April 1 2010 - Jan 3 2020)
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A bearish, tactical plan: sit in T‑Bills when the S&P 500’s long trend is healthy; when it weakens, hunt short bounces with 3x stock ETFs or build hedges with the US dollar, gold, and commodities, guided by simple “oversold” and interest‑rate signals.
1) If the S&P 500 (SPY) is above its 200‑day average (a long‑trend line), sit in T‑Bills (BIL).
2) If it’s below, try quick “wash‑out” bounces using a heat gauge called RSI (0–100; low = oversold) in 3x stock funds (TQQQ = Nasdaq, SPXL = S&P) or their 3x shorts (SQQQ, SPXU).
3) If no bounce setup, hedge based on rates: if bonds lag cash, favor the US dollar (UUP) plus short tech or short bonds (TMV); else hold gold (GLD) and a calmer mix of commodities (DBC/USO/UNG/XME/XLU).
Regime-based strategy trims equity exposure in strong markets and targets oversold bounces with 3x ETFs plus USD/gold hedges. Diversifies risk; offers positive OOS Sharpe (~0.59) even as OOS return trails SPY (15.5% vs 22.5%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3 | 0.82 | 0.15 | 0.38 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 722.11% | 14.01% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.85 | |
| 29,046.93% | 42.35% | 20.61% | 21.27% | 1.14 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,914,692.71Regulatory Fees
$5,651.07
Total Slippage
$34,507.90
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 7, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical bearish, mean reversion, trend filter, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, hedged, rates regime, commodities, gold, us dollar
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 16 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks