Bond Movement vs Stock Movement (Framework)
Today’s Change (Oct 8, 2026)
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About
A rules-based mix that toggles between US stocks and Treasuries using trend and “overbought/oversold” signals. Buys broad/tech stocks when uptrends are healthy, shifts to bonds when stocks overheat or bonds lead, and may short bonds in deep bond selloffs.
Rule-based “stocks vs bonds” switcher. Step 1: if Nasdaq is washed out (RSI, a 0–100 recent‑move score, <31), take a small tech rebound (TECL 40%) and park the rest in short‑term bonds (BSV).
Else use trends: price vs 200‑day and bond trends (long vs longer averages). If stocks lead and aren’t hot (RSI>60=hot), hold QQQ/SPY/DIA (big US stock funds); if hot or bonds lead, rotate to IEF/TLT (Treasury funds). In weak bonds + weak stocks, use SPHD/XLP/BSV or short bonds (TBF).
Out-of-sample strategy delivers near-S&P returns with far lower risk: annualized ~20.5% vs 21.2%, max drawdown ~10% vs ~19%, Calmar ~2.0. Dynamic stock-vs-bonds rotation reduces downside while capturing upside.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.18 | 0.59 | 0.35 | 0.59 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 577.61% | 14.72% | 1.72% | 4.21% | 0.91 | |
| 3,195.24% | 28.51% | 1.49% | 7.24% | 1.58 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$329,523.79Regulatory Fees
$971.95
Total Slippage
$8,199.30
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 10, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, us stocks, us treasuries, defensive rotation, leveraged/inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPHD
Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks