Bond Movement vs Stock Movement (Framework)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based switch between US stocks and Treasuries. Follows trends (using price averages), favors the recent winner, buys small tech “oversold” bounces, and can short long Treasuries when they’re weak. Defaults to short-term bonds when unclear; uses leveraged/inverse ETFs sparingly.
First, if tech has dropped hard (10‑day RSI, a short‑term “oversold” gauge, on a Nasdaq fund is very low), it buys a small tech rebound (TECL) and parks the rest in short‑term bonds (BSV). Otherwise it switches between stocks and Treasuries by trend: checks long‑term bond trend (350 vs 450‑day averages—avg price over X days), who led over ~3 months, and short‑term heat. In slumps it may short Treasuries (TBF) or sit in BSV.
Dynamic regime-switching between stocks and Treasuries offers lower out-of-sample risk and drawdown (about 10% vs 18.8%), solid Calmar (~1.77), and resilience in downturns, while still capturing tech rebounds—defensive edge vs the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.18 | 0.58 | 0.34 | 0.58 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 492.72% | 14.27% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.88 | |
| 2,646.86% | 28.2% | 2.68% | 3.17% | 1.57 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$274,686.45Regulatory Fees
$1,124.63
Total Slippage
$7,395.54
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 10, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, stocks vs bonds, trend & momentum, rsi oversold bounces, defensive rotation, leveraged/inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPHD
Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks