A market-timing strategy that switches between big tech, defensive consumer staples, a beaten-down tech rebound trade, or a bet against the market based on bond strength, market trend, and short-term momentum.

This strategy is always 100% in just one holding at a time. 1) If long-term US government bonds (TLT) have been acting stronger than a fund that bets against big tech (PSQ), it buys QQQ, which is packed with large growth stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. 2) If not, it checks whether the overall US stock market (SPY) is still in a healthy long-term uptrend. If yes, it moves into XLP, a fund of everyday-products companies like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and Walmart. 3) If the market trend looks weak, it asks whether big tech has fallen very hard very recently. If yes, it buys XLK, a technology fund, hoping for a rebound. 4) If none of those are true, it buys SH, a fund that rises when the S&P 500 falls.

Adaptive regime-switching strategy tested over 792 days of out-of-sample data. Dynamic rotations between tech/defense/hedge offer diversification with beta ≈0.72 and 13.2% annualized return vs SPY’s 17.8%—a distinct risk/return profile.