An aggressive one-position trading strategy that tries to detect overheated markets, buy sharp dips, and switch between tech, volatility, bearish Nasdaq, or Treasury bonds based on short-term market strength.

This strategy puts all its money into just one investment at a time. First, it checks whether many parts of the stock market have gone up too fast recently. If so, it buys UVXY, a very aggressive fund that tends to rise when market fear jumps. If not, it looks for sharp selloffs and tries to buy the rebound using leveraged stock funds like TECL, SOXL, or SPXL. It also compares technology stocks to KMLM, a more defensive trend-following fund. If tech looks stronger, it stays aggressive; if not, it shifts to a bearish Nasdaq fund or long-term Treasury bonds.

Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~30% annual return vs S&P’s ~22%, with beta ~0.72 and Calmar ~0.77—lower correlation and strong upside. But be ready for larger drawdowns (~39% vs ~9%), i.e. higher risk.