Blend: V4 & V5 CFS + BBD, BHFEAR | BIL + V1a TQQQ or not
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily regime-switching system that blends two modes (V4: more aggressive; V5: more cautious) to tilt between 3x levered ETFs (UPRO, TQQQ) for growth and cash/hedges (BIL, TMF) for protection, using dip-buying, RSI/volatility signals, and drawdown/risk checks across multiple windows.
- The strategy runs daily and chooses between two main modes (V4 and V5).
- V4 aims for aggressive growth via 3x levered ETFs (UPRO for S&P 500, TQQQ for Nasdaq 100) when signals look favorable, but uses Bear BUYDIPS logic and a Hedge OFF/ON framework to manage risk. It also uses BIL as cash, and occasionally TMF as a hedge.
- V5 is the more cautious, “Fund Surfing” variant with a cash-centric posture (BIL) and a structured blend that emphasizes hedging and slower growth, while still allowing some 3x exposure under the right regime. It uses a fixed weight approach where a portion of capital is routed to leveraged ETFs and a portion to hedges, with a significant emphasis on risk management.
- Market regime is inferred from several signals and windows (14–35 days) including inverse-volatility checks, RSI-like momentum checks, and drawdown thresholds. If the market shows sustained strength and favorable momentum, the system tilts toward UPRO and TQQQ with relatively higher weights. If signals deteriorate or risk metrics exceed thresholds, the model shifts toward cash (BIL) and/or hedges like TMF.
- The dip-check modules (Nasdaq Dip Check and S&P 500 Dip Check) scan short-term price dips and, if they meet criteria, prompt entries into levered ETFs to ride a potential rebound.
- The Mean Reversion Bond Signal sub-path (in V1a/BondSignal portion) looks to bias holdings toward bonds (through TMF and BND-family proxies) when volatility or risk signals are high, acting as a hedge against equity downside.
- Rebalancing is daily, and the system is designed to adapt to changing regimes rather than sticking to a fixed asset mix.
Dynamic regime-switching strategy toggling between aggressive 3x levered ETFs and hedges/cash. Out-of-sample: ~54% annual return vs ~22% for the S&P, with solid risk control (Calmar ~1.25) and built-in downside protection—though drawdowns can be larger in tough markets.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 30, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching, leveraged etfs, dip-buying, risk-off cash hedges, mean-reversion hedges, rsi/volatility signals, dual-version architecture
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks