Blend: V4 & V5 CFS + BBD, BHFEAR | BIL + TQQQ or not - Replace UVXY w/ SOXS
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily-rebalanced, regime-based strategy that blends leveraged growth ETFs with safety hedges, using multi-window momentum, drawdown, and volatility signals to switch between risk-on and risk-off modes. It substitutes UVXY with SOXS in some paths and aims to ride up markets while limiting losses.
- It blends several strategy layers (V4 & V5 CFS concepts) into one daily-rebalanced plan.
- Signals come from dip checks on big indices (Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500), momentum-like comparisons, volatility and drawdown metrics, and a set of moving windows (14d/21d/28d, etc.).
- When signals favor risk appetite, the model tilts into leveraged growth (UPRO and TQQQ) with TMF as a partial hedge.
- When signals warn of risk, it shifts to safety (BIL and SHY proxies) and may reduce or remove leverage.
- It uses “Risk ON” and “Risk OFF” blocks with specific asset groupings and weights (example: 55% UPRO vs 45% TMF in some cases, plus 45% TMF).
- The plan includes a dynamic hedging stack (UVXY and/or the SOXS alternative in some branches) to capture volatility spikes, and a Mean Rev path that tests mean-reversion signals.
- It rebalances daily, oscillating between growth tilt and safety tilt based on the rules, not on a single indicator.
- It references a mix of widely-traded ETFs and some less-popular ones (e.g., KMLM, UVXY, SOXS) to achieve diversification and hedging nuances.
- The design emphasizes no K-1s in some sub-strategies, ease of tax reporting, and a focus on cash-like hedges when risk is high.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets much higher upside (~53% annualized) vs. the S&P (~22%), using dynamic risk-on/off regimes and hedges. Strong risk-adjusted profile (Calmar ~1.19), though drawdowns can be larger in downturns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49 | 1.38 | 0.39 | 0.62 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 1,010,901.08% | 89.58% | -2.5% | -4.22% | 1.9 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$101,100,108.32Regulatory Fees
$236,694.18
Total Slippage
$1,659,891.43
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 29, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equity strategy, risk-on/risk-off, regime-based, multi-asset hedging, backtested
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks