Blend: Cautious Fund Surfing | 3x & V1.1 | Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A 50/50 blend: cautious, volatility-aware switching between 3x S&P and a USD/gold/staples safety basket, plus a regime system that buys big 5‑day dips in bears and runs a 3x stocks/long‑bond mix in bulls. Rebalanced daily.
Splits money 50/50 across two tactics; rebalances daily.
1) Cautious surf: If the last 2–6 weeks were calm and stocks look sold‑off vs safe bonds, buy 3x S&P (UPRO); otherwise hold a safety basket: USD (UUP), gold (GLD), consumer‑staples (XLP).
2) Regime: If the S&P is >10% off its peak (bear), buy big 5‑day dips in Nasdaq/S&P with 3x funds unless they just bounced >5% in a day; else safety. Otherwise, hold ~55% 3x stocks (UPRO/TQQQ) and 45% 3x long Treasuries (TMF) when stress is low; else safety.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~36.7% vs SPY ~22.95%, with ~+3.75% alpha. Strong risk-adjusted edge (Calmar ~1.10; Sharpe ~1.31). Capitalizes on bear dips and a diversified safety basket—larger upside, but expect bigger drawdowns in stress.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 20, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, volatility targeting, dip buying, defensive rotation, regime switching, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks