Black Swan Catcher (SPY)
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Mostly parks in T‑bills. In panics: buys TECL if tech looks washed out; otherwise uses VIXM (moderate) or BIL (severe). In calm but overbought markets, briefly buys UVXY to catch a volatility pop; else stays in cash-like T‑bills.
Daily rules.
1) If SPY fell >10% in ~1 month: crash mode. If −10% to −25%: buy TECL (3× tech) only if TQQQ RSI<31 (RSI = 0–100 “hot/cold” gauge); else buy VIXM (volatility). If >25% down: buy TECL if RSI<31; else hold BIL (T‑bills).
2) Otherwise: stay in SHV (T‑bills) unless the market looks “too hot” (RSI on TQQQ>81 or SPY>80); then, if UVXY’s own RSI>40, buy UVXY (volatility), else stay SHV.
Note: UVXY/VIXM and 3× ETFs are high‑risk, short‑term tools.
Out-of-sample edge: ~27.6% annualized return vs SPY ~16.3%; max drawdown ~4.17% vs ~18.76%; Sharpe ~0.90; Calmar ~6.61; beta ~0.84. Higher upside with far smaller drawdowns and lower market sensitivity.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.03 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 622.94% | 14.87% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.92 | |
| 6,150.36% | 33.63% | 0.3% | 0.82% | 1.21 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$625,036.44Regulatory Fees
$416.32
Total Slippage
$2,747.21
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 10, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Crash protection, volatility timing, leveraged tech, mean reversion, tactical allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks