Black Swan Catcher (SPY)
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
Mostly parks in cash-like Treasuries. In sharp selloffs it buys an oversold tech bounce; in overheated markets it may buy volatility (UVXY) if vol shows strength. Uses simple 0–100 heat gauges (RSI) and SPY’s 1‑month drop to switch.
Looks at SPY’s ~1‑month drop and a simple 0–100 heat gauge (RSI; high=hot, low=cold) on TQQQ or SPY. If SPY fell >10%: buy a tech bounce (TECL, a 3x tech fund) only when tech is very cold; otherwise use volatility (VIXM) or T‑bills (BIL). If no big drop: sit in T‑bills (SHV) unless stocks look too hot; then, if volatility itself is firm, buy UVXY (a vol fund that jumps when markets fall). Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample results show higher upside with far lower risk: 27.6% annualized return vs SPY's 16.3%, max drawdown 4.2% vs 18.8%, Calmar ~6.6. Strong risk-adjusted alpha and downside protection.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.03 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 591.69% | 14.65% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.91 | |
| 6,124.97% | 33.91% | 0.25% | 0.85% | 1.21 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$622,496.62Regulatory Fees
$397.94
Total Slippage
$2,622.18
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 10, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility-timing, crash-protection, tactical-allocation, leveraged-etfs, mean-reversion, risk-off-cash
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks