BLACK SWAN CATCHER + BIL CANARY + EQUITY (BACKTESTS TO 5/14/2013) 37246.1% CUMULATIVE/82.8% ANNUAL/21.8% DRAWDOWN
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A rules-based switcher: it rotates between a value/dividend/small‑cap stock basket, a gold+bonds shield, or a volatility spike hedge (UVXY), guided by market trend, hot/cold readings (RSI), and a T‑bill “canary” (BIL) to flip offense vs. defense.
It switches among three modes using simple signals. Trend: is the S&P 500 above its 200‑day average? Heat/fear: an RSI “hot/cold” meter (0–100). Canary: if 1‑yr return on T‑bill fund BIL is high, play defense. Offense = 4 stock funds tilted to quality/value dividends and small companies (SPGP, SCHD, SYLD, RWJ). Defense = gold (SGOL) + bonds (TIP or FLTR). Briefly buy UVXY (jumps when fear rises) when heat/fear rules trigger.
OOS, this strategy beats the S&P on risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe ~1.72 vs ~1.53, annualized return ~25.7% vs ~24.6%, max drawdown ~17.95% vs ~18.76%, with positive alpha (~0.23%) and Calmar ~1.43.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 13, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend-following, volatility hedge, risk-managed equities, value/dividend tilt
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
FLTR
VanEck IG Floating Rate ETF
Stocks
RWJ
Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF
Stocks
SCHD
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF
Stocks
SGOL
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF
Stocks
SPGP
Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SYLD
Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF
Stocks
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond ETF
Stocks