BLACK SWAN CATCHER + BIL CANARY + EQUITY (BACKTESTS TO 5/14/2013) 37246.1% CUMULATIVE/82.8% ANNUAL/21.8% DRAWDOWN
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rides stock uptrends, shifts to gold and safer bonds when cash yields are high, and briefly buys UVXY during volatility spikes. Core stock sleeve favors value, quality, and small caps over mega‑cap growth. Backtest only; not a guarantee.
1) Trend check: If SPY is above its 200‑day average, it’s risk‑on; otherwise risk‑off.
2) Crash watch: If short‑term “heat” is extreme (TQQQ/SPXL very hot or UVXY heating up), temporarily move 100% to UVXY.
3) If no crash signal: Use BIL’s 1‑yr return. If ≥1.75%, go Defensive (70% gold + TIPS/FLTR); else go Offensive (SPGP, SCHD, SYLD, RWJ).
Out-of-sample edge: ~25.7% annualized vs SPY 24.6%, higher risk-adjusted return (Sharpe 1.72 vs 1.53), and lower drawdown (~18.0% vs 18.8%), with Calmar ~1.43. A risk-managed, value tilt with tactical hedges (gold, UVXY) for steadier growth.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 13, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend-following, volatility hedge, multi-asset, value tilt, risk-managed
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
FLTR
VanEck IG Floating Rate ETF
Stocks
RWJ
Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF
Stocks
SCHD
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF
Stocks
SGOL
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF
Stocks
SPGP
Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SYLD
Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF
Stocks
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond ETF
Stocks