Risk-managed ETF allocation using a Black Swan Catcher with a BIL canary; toggles between four offensive ETFs and a defensive gold/TIPS pair, guided by trend (200-day MA) and RSI/volatility signals; no fixed rebalancing.

This strategy toggles between an Offensive sleeve and a Defensive sleeve based on market signals. When conditions look favorable (bullish trend and calm risk signals), it allocates mostly to four ETFs: SPGP (growth-at-a-reasonable-price), SCHD (quality/dividend focus), SYLD (yield-focused), and RWJ (small-cap revenue). When risk signals flare (or the market slope turns negative), it shifts to a Defensive mix of SGOL (gold) and TIP (inflation-protected bonds), using BIL as a canary to sense risk: if BIL’s 365-day return is ≥ 1.75%, defensive positioning is emphasized. The model also uses RSI-based signals on UVXY and SPY/SPXL to manage volatility hedges. Rebalancing isn’t scheduled; weights adjust only when the trigger rules fire. The framework prioritizes drawdown protection while trying to capture upside over time; it’s backtested since 2013 with very high cumulative results, but past performance isn’t a guarantee of future results.

Out-of-sample: Sharpe ~1.72 vs SPY ~1.53; annualized return ~25.70% vs ~24.59%; max drawdown ~17.95% vs ~18.76%. Adds trend-based risk controls and defensive hedges for stronger growth with downside protection vs the S&P 500.