BLACK SWAN CATCHER + BIL CANARY + EQUITY (BACKTESTS TO 5/14/2013) 37246.1% CUMULATIVE/82.8% ANNUAL/21.8% DRAWDOWN
Today’s Change (Feb 9, 2026)
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About
Rules-based rotation among a value-tilted stock mix, a gold/bond defense, and a short-term volatility hedge (UVXY). Uses a 200‑day trend filter, RSI “overheated” readings, and BIL’s 1‑yr return as a canary to reduce large drawdowns.
Trend: S&P 500 above its 200‑day average = risk‑on; below = risk‑off.
Crash hedge: if RSI (a “hot/cold” meter) is very high on TQQQ/SPXL, or UVXY’s own heat is 74–84, buy UVXY briefly.
Canary: if BIL’s 1‑yr return ≥1.75%, hold Defense (≈70% SGOL gold + TIP or FLTR bonds); else hold Offense (SPGP, SCHD, SYLD, RWJ—value/dividend/small‑cap).
Out-of-sample edge: annualized return ~25.7% vs S&P 24.6%; Sharpe ~1.72 vs 1.53; max drawdown ~17.95% vs 18.76%; beta ~0.055; Calmar ~1.43. Higher risk-adjusted growth and slightly better downside control.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6 | -0.17 | 0.01 | -0.08 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 421.22% | 13.87% | -0.17% | 3.34% | 0.85 | |
| 76,134.12% | 68.53% | 5.43% | 12.35% | 1.58 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$7,623,412.24Regulatory Fees
$3,929.62
Total Slippage
$26,511.29
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 13, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend filter, crash hedge (uvxy), cash canary (bil), value/dividend equities, small caps, gold, tips or floating-rate bonds, rsi signals
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
FLTR
VanEck IG Floating Rate ETF
Stocks
RWJ
Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF
Stocks
SCHD
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF
Stocks
SGOL
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF
Stocks
SPGP
Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SYLD
Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF
Stocks
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond ETF
Stocks