Bitcoin Strategy | Dereck Nielsen
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rule-based bitcoin strategy that usually owns bitcoin, sometimes bets against it when it looks overheated, and moves into short-term Treasury funds when risk rises.
This strategy is an active bitcoin trader, not a simple buy-and-hold plan.
It mainly watches three things: the overall stock market, bitcoin’s recent trend, and whether bitcoin looks unusually “hot” or “washed out.”
If conditions look good, it usually buys BITO (a fund that tracks bitcoin). If bitcoin looks too overheated, it switches to BITI, which rises when bitcoin falls. If bitcoin drops sharply, it may hide in SHV, a very short-term Treasury fund that acts like a cash parking spot.
When markets look weaker, it uses extra rules and may mix in crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and bitcoin miners.
Out-of-sample edge: a rule-based tactical Bitcoin strategy with strong risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe ~2.32, Calmar ~7.51) that aims to outperform the S&P 500 by riding BTC momentum and shifting to cash/defense when markets turn.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.46 | 0.6 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113.34% | 19.36% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 1.18 | |
| 658.92% | 60.53% | 1.91% | 28.72% | 1.29 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$75,892.10Regulatory Fees
$371.81
Total Slippage
$2,038.60
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 6, 2026
Trading Setting
Threshold 1%
Type
Stocks
Category
Bitcoin, tactical asset allocation, momentum, mean reversion, risk management, crypto, defensive bonds
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BITI
ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF
Stocks
BITO
ProShares Bitcoin ETF
Stocks
BITQ
Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Stocks
HUT
Hut 8 Corp. Common Stock
Stocks
KEEL
Keel Infrastructure Corp. Common Stock
Stocks
MARA
MARA Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
RIOT
Riot Platforms, Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks