Bitcoin Strategy by Derecknielsen (Under Construction)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Bitcoin‑centric, one‑position strategy. If stocks trend up, buy MSTR. If not, use Bitcoin’s short‑term trend/momentum to pick either short Bitcoin (BITI) or defensive bond plays (BSV/TBT). Signals checked daily.
Each day it rotates among a few funds/stocks using simple signals. If the US market (SPY) trends up (price above its 200‑day average), it buys MSTR (MicroStrategy, a Bitcoin‑heavy company). Otherwise it uses Bitcoin (BITO) as a gauge. If BITO is weak (below its 15‑day average), it holds the strongest of BITI (short Bitcoin), BSV (short‑term bonds), or TBT (inverse long Treasuries) by 10‑day RSI (0–100 recent‑strength score). If BITO’s RSI>59, use BITI; else MSTR.
Bitcoin-driven alpha with a tactical risk framework. Out-of-sample return 26% vs SPY’s 21% via MSTR and nimble hedges. Higher upside, but larger drawdowns (≈85%) and beta (≈1.53) vs SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.47 | 1.28 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.6% | 18.83% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 1.13 | |
| 267.06% | 42.84% | 13.44% | -21.27% | 0.84 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$36,706.47Regulatory Fees
$73.89
Total Slippage
$473.24
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 30, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto, bitcoin, tactical rotation, trend/momentum, risk-on/off, inverse etfs, bonds
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total