Bitcoin Strategy by Derecknielsen (Under Construction)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Daily rotates among MicroStrategy (a bitcoin proxy), short bitcoin (BITI), short‑term bonds (BSV), or an inverse long‑Treasury fund (TBT) using stock‑market trend and bitcoin’s short‑term trend/strength signals.
Checked daily. Step 1: If the S&P 500 fund (SPY) is above its 200‑day average price, buy MicroStrategy (MSTR), a stock that behaves like a leveraged bitcoin play.
Step 2: If SPY is below, look at the bitcoin ETF (BITO). If BITO is below its 15‑day average, buy whichever of: short bitcoin (BITI), short‑term bonds (BSV), or an ETF that rises when long Treasuries fall (TBT) has risen most lately. Otherwise, if BITO is very strong, short bitcoin; if not, hold MSTR.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~26% vs SPY ~21%, powered by a crypto tilt and adaptive hedges. Potential for bigger upside, but expect higher drawdowns (up to ~85% vs ~19%) and lower risk-adjusted Sharpe in stressed markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.48 | 1.29 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83.67% | 17.95% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 1.08 | |
| 276.69% | 43.35% | 16.79% | -6.3% | 0.84 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$37,669.00Regulatory Fees
$73.89
Total Slippage
$473.24
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 30, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto rotation, trend filter, momentum, etf rotation, inverse etfs, bonds, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total