Bitcoin & Fren
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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About
A fast-moving bitcoin strategy: own bitcoin funds when momentum is strong, move to T-bills when it weakens, and reduce risk when bitcoin looks overheated.
This strategy is a daily on/off switch for bitcoin exposure.
It checks BITO, a stock-market fund that tracks bitcoin. If bitcoin’s recent momentum looks weak, it moves to BIL, a very short-term Treasury-bill fund (a cash-like parking spot).
If momentum looks strong, it stays in bitcoin-related funds. If bitcoin looks too overheated, it cuts risk by splitting between BITO and BIL. Otherwise, it rotates between regular bitcoin exposure (BITO) and extra-aggressive 2x bitcoin exposure (BITX) using very short-term performance signals.
Out-of-sample edge: ~20.9% annualized vs SPY’s 18.2%, with beta ~0.64 and a cash hedge. It captures bitcoin upside on momentum and trims risk when overheated. Higher upside, but larger crypto drawdowns can occur.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.48 | 0.63 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.36% | 19.77% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 1.28 | |
| 348.25% | 58.22% | -4.44% | 25.9% | 1.12 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$44,824.91Regulatory Fees
$156.96
Total Slippage
$978.47
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 4, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Bitcoin, crypto, momentum, trend following, mean reversion, tactical asset allocation, leveraged etf, cash management