A monthly biotech-timing strategy. If biotech (IBB) is in an uptrend, it buys two fast-rising biotech stocks from a set list. If not, it holds two defensive ETFs (bonds/staples/utilities/health care) that recently dipped. Equal-weight the two picks.

Every month: 1) Check if biotech is trending up by seeing if IBB’s 50-day average price is above its 200-day average. 2) If yes, buy 2 biotech stocks from a set list that rose the most lately (RSI = speed-of-moves gauge). 3) If not, buy 2 “safer” ETFs that dipped most: BSV (short-term bonds), TLT (long Treasuries), LQD (IG bonds), VBF (bond fund), XLP/UGE (consumer staples), XLU (utilities), XLV (health care). Split money 50/50.

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 4.38 vs SPY 1.30; annualized OOS return ~671% vs 15%; Calmar ~117; negative beta (~-0.78) implies hedging during market drops; max drawdown ~5.74% vs SPY 2.98%—yet far superior risk-adjusted upside.