BIL vs BND
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Uses a 60‑day bonds‑vs‑cash test (BND vs BIL) to switch between risk‑on and safe‑haven. Risk‑on holds TQQQ unless QQQ is extremely “hot,” then it moves to UVXY. Safe‑haven keeps ~60% cash and rotates ~40% into the 4 strongest defensive assets.
60‑day test: if BND (US bonds) beat BIL (cash‑like T‑bills) → risk‑on; else → safe‑haven.
Risk‑on: Check QQQ (big‑tech) 10‑day RSI (0–100 “heat”). If >80, hold UVXY (rises with fear); else TQQQ (3× QQQ).
Safe‑haven: Keep ~60% cash. Put ~40% in the top 4 (30‑day) from: UUP (US$), TMF (3× long Treasuries), DBC (commodities), UGL (2× gold), IEO (oil & gas), XLU (utilities), VIXM (volatility), TMV (3× short Treasuries).
Rebalance only on ~5% drift.
Out-of-sample edge: 40.6% annualized return vs 27% S&P, with Calmar ~0.82. Dynamic risk-on/off plus defensive hedges target bigger upside and controlled turnover. Caution: max drawdown ~50% vs ~19% for the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.32 | 0.57 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 961,601.87% | 88.92% | 4% | 6.18% | 1.51 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$96,170,186.59Regulatory Fees
$219,919.02
Total Slippage
$1,555,064.07
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 25, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, momentum, trend, leveraged etfs, volatility, bonds vs cash, safe-haven rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
IEO
iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks