BIL vs BND
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Switches between offense and defense using bonds vs T-bills. In offense, ride Nasdaq strength unless it looks overheated (then shift to volatility). In defense, rotate 40% into the best safe-haven assets and keep 60% in cash.
It checks the last 60 days: if BND (US bonds) beat BIL (T-bills), it’s risk-on. Then check QQQ’s 10-day RSI (a heat gauge). If RSI > 80 (overheated), hold UVXY (VIX). Else hold TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100). If BND didn’t beat BIL, go defensive: put 40% in the top 4 (by 30-day return) of UUP (US dollar), TMF/TMV (3x Treasuries long/short), DBC (commodities), UGL (2x gold), IEO (energy stocks), XLU (utilities), VIXM (VIX); keep 60% in cash.
Big upside with regime-switching: out-of-sample return ~40.6% vs SPY ~27.2%, by riding Nasdaq momentum and hedging when heat rises. Accept higher risk: max drawdown ~49.7% vs ~18.8%.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49 | 1.71 | 0.32 | 0.57 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 685.88% | 15.41% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.94 | |
| 961,141.81% | 89.21% | -2.67% | -0.88% | 1.51 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$96,124,181.12Regulatory Fees
$216,610.57
Total Slippage
$1,531,384.56
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 25, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switch, momentum, tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, volatility etps, bonds vs t-bills, safe-haven rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
IEO
iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks