BIL vs BND
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Dynamic BIL vs BND core with regime tilts: risk-on levered bets (UVXY or TQQQ) when 60d BND>60d BIL and market momentum supports risk, otherwise a top-4 safe-haven momentum basket (e.g., UUP, TMF, DBC, UGL, IEO, XLU, VIXM, TMV) using 30-day momentum; 5% rebalancing band.
- Start with a baseline BIL vs BND core (cash-like vs bonds).
- Regime decision: if 60-day BND outperforms 60-day BIL, move to Risk On; otherwise switch to Safe Haven Momentum.
- Risk On: use a short-term RSI signal on QQQ to pick between UVXY (volatility hedge) if RSI(QQQ,10) > 80, or TQQQ (3x NASDAQ) if not.
- Safe Haven Momentum: screen a set of hedging/alternative assets (UUP, TMF, DBC, UGL, IEO, XLU, VIXM, TMV), pick the top 4 by 30-day cumulative return, and allocate 40% to those four assets.
- Rebalancing uses a 5% corridor, but the overall framework is described as rebalance-none unless a trigger occurs.
- The system aims to balance a cash/bond core with regime-tilts and momentum-based hedges to respond to market conditions.
Dynamic regime-based core aiming for higher long-run growth. OOS annualized return 40.6% vs SPY 27.2%, with momentum-based hedges and regime tilts. Expect higher volatility and drawdowns (~50%), but potential for meaningful alpha.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.32 | 0.57 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 961,601.87% | 88.92% | 4% | 6.18% | 1.51 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$96,170,186.59Regulatory Fees
$219,919.02
Total Slippage
$1,555,064.07
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 25, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Asset allocation, regime-based, momentum, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
IEO
iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks