BIL vs BND
Today’s Change (Apr 5, 2026)
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About
Uses a 60‑day bonds‑vs‑cash test (BND vs BIL) to switch between risk‑on and safe‑haven. Risk‑on holds TQQQ unless QQQ is extremely “hot,” then it moves to UVXY. Safe‑haven keeps ~60% cash and rotates ~40% into the 4 strongest defensive assets.
60‑day test: if BND (US bonds) beat BIL (cash‑like T‑bills) → risk‑on; else → safe‑haven.
Risk‑on: Check QQQ (big‑tech) 10‑day RSI (0–100 “heat”). If >80, hold UVXY (rises with fear); else TQQQ (3× QQQ).
Safe‑haven: Keep ~60% cash. Put ~40% in the top 4 (30‑day) from: UUP (US$), TMF (3× long Treasuries), DBC (commodities), UGL (2× gold), IEO (oil & gas), XLU (utilities), VIXM (volatility), TMV (3× short Treasuries).
Rebalance only on ~5% drift.
Out-of-sample annualized return: 40.56% vs SPY 27.16%; Calmar ~0.82; OOS Sharpe ~0.91. Max drawdown ~49.74% vs SPY ~18.76%. Higher upside through risk-on tech momentum plus tactical safe-haven hedges for risk-tolerant investors.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.69 | 0.32 | 0.56 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 654.26% | 14.99% | -4.19% | -3.74% | 0.92 | |
| 932,558.14% | 88.13% | -1.88% | 2.98% | 1.5 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$93,265,813.97Regulatory Fees
$222,585.91
Total Slippage
$1,574,003.74
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 25, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, momentum, trend, leveraged etfs, volatility, bonds vs cash, safe-haven rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
IEO
iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks