A daily, rules-based switch between SPY (US stocks) and TLT (long-term US Treasury bonds). It favors SPY in uptrends or small dips, and moves to bonds only when trends are weak and/or market turbulence spikes, sometimes landing in a 50/50 mix.

What it owns: either SPY (broad US stocks) or TLT (long-term US Treasury bonds), or a 50/50 mix. Checked daily. It splits your money between two simple checks: 1) Trend/dip check: If SPY’s medium-term average price is above a slower average, own SPY. If not, only own SPY when it’s had a short, small dip; otherwise hold TLT. (A “moving average” is just the recent average price; an “exponential” one weighs recent days a bit more.) 2) Turbulence check: If SPY’s recent day-to-day swings are small, own SPY; if they spike unusually high, switch to TLT. (“Volatility” here means how bumpy daily returns have been.) The two checks can agree (all SPY or all TLT) or disagree (you end up roughly half in each).

Dynamic SPY/TLT, daily rules-based rebalance. Out-of-sample return 11.05% vs SPY 15.60%; oos Sharpe 0.65 vs SPY 0.84, drawdowns similar (~18.76%). Diversification and steadier risk in volatile markets.