Beat the SPY with Bonds - 20020726
Today’s Change (Apr 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily rotates between SPY (US stocks across all major sectors) and TLT (long‑term US Treasuries). Half follows a stock‑trend rule, half a “calm vs. bumpy” rule, so you can be 100% stocks, 50/50, or 100% bonds based on conditions.
This strategy owns either SPY (broad US stocks) or TLT (long‑term US Treasury bonds). It splits your money in two:
1) Trend part: If SPY’s 100‑day average price is above its 150‑day average, hold SPY. If not, hold SPY only if today’s price is below its 5‑day average; otherwise hold TLT.
2) Calm/turbulent part: If the last 10 days’ ups and downs have been small, hold SPY; if they’ve been bumpy, hold TLT.
It rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample: stock/bond rotation aims for steadier gains with ~11.5% annualized return, 0.69 Sharpe, 0.96 beta, and ~18.8% max drawdown. Offers diversification and downside protection versus the S&P 500 in volatile markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.87 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,182.3% | 11.37% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.66 | |
| 3,525.39% | 16.36% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 1.04 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$362,538.72Regulatory Fees
$442.65
Total Slippage
$2,944.70
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 23, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, equity–bond rotation, trend-following, volatility filter, moving averages, daily rebalance