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Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Daily trend-and-safety switch: in uptrends, split between SPY and tech‑heavy QQQ, tilted to the steadier one. In weak markets, buy QQQ on sharp dips, or SPY if holding up; otherwise park in short‑term T‑bills.
Each day:
1) If SPY’s short-term average price (~1 month) is above its long-term average (~10 months), the trend is up. Hold SPY (S&P 500) and QQQ (tech‑heavy Nasdaq‑100), giving more to the steadier one (lower 100‑day volatility).
2) Otherwise, if QQQ looks oversold (RSI—a gauge of how fast it’s been dropping—reads low), buy QQQ.
3) Else if SPY is above its ~31‑day average, buy SPY.
4) Else hold BIL (1–3 month U.S. T‑bills). Rebalance daily.
Out-of-sample edge: annualized return ~27.4% vs SPY ~22.1%; Sharpe ~1.57 vs 1.39; drawdown ~16.9% vs 18.8%; Calmar ~1.62. Trend-following with volatility-aware tilts delivers steadier growth and better risk control than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.86 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 519.21% | 10.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.59 | |
| 1,764.55% | 16.87% | -0.89% | 0.39% | 0.95 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$186,454.81Regulatory Fees
$245.68
Total Slippage
$1,240.66
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 11, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, tactical asset allocation, momentum, volatility targeting, downside protection, us large-cap, tech tilt, t-bills/cash