A daily-regime, rule-based strategy switching between Bear: Buy Dips (dip-buy in major indices with ballast and selective leverage) and Bull: Hedgefundie’s Excellent Adventure Refined (Risk ON/Risk OFF with a leveraged growth sleeve and defensive ballast). Uses price/momentum/drawdown signals over short to medium windows, with cash-equal weight allocations and a mix of stock, leveraged stock, bonds, gold, and munis to balance upside and risk.

Bear regime (Buy the Dips): When downturns appear, allocate cash evenly across a dip-buying basket centered on Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 proxies, with optional use of leverage to amplify upside during confirmed dip recoveries. If markers show deep or persistent drawdowns (e.g., SPY’s 252-day max drawdown > ~10%), rotate into defensive ballast (short-term bonds and municipal bonds) to reduce risk. Also monitor short-window momentum signals (e.g., 1- to 5-day returns) to trigger or curb leverage (SPXL, TQQQ) and to decide whether to stay with or move away from levered bets. Bull regime (Hedgefundie’s Excellent Adventure Refined): When the market is not in a downturn, shift toward a risk-on sleeve that couples aggressive exposure (e.g., ProShares UltraPro S&P 500, and high-duration Treasuries via TMF) with a risk-off ballast (IEI, GLD, TIP, BSV) that is tuned by a 26-day window and moving-average checks. The “Risk ON” and “Risk OFF” sub-portfolios are weighted to ~100% of capital when active, with a split (e.g., 55/45) between aggressive and defensive assets in the Risk ON sub-portfolio. The decision to switch between Risk ON and Risk OFF depends on price/volatility signals (e.g., a 200-day moving-average comparison with downside drawdown thresholds) to determine whether to lean into growth-orientated positions or to favor hedging assets. Daily rebalance resets ensure the mix reflects current signals rather than a static allocation. Assets used across regimes include: SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), SPXL (3x S&P 500), TQQQ (3x Nasdaq), UPRO (3x S&P 500), TMF (long 20+ year Treasuries), IEI (mid-term Treasuries), GLD (gold), TIP (TIPS), BSV (short-term Treasuries), MUB (muni bonds). Note: Leveraged ETFs (SPXL, TQQQ, UPRO) magnify moves on a daily basis and can decay over time in choppy markets, so their use in this framework is signal-driven rather than static; defensive assets serve as ballast to dampen volatility during adverse regimes. The structure uses multiple windows and thresholds to avoid overreacting to short-lived moves while trying to capture larger trend moves.

Dynamic Bear/Bull regime strategy diversifies across stocks, bonds, and gold with ballast and leverage signals. OOS return ~13.2% vs SPY ~20.2%, but adds disciplined risk management and diversification to a core SPY position.