Base 2 Bull or Bonds
Today’s Change (Dec 5, 2025)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules-based switch that decides if stocks or defense should lead, then buys sharp dips in 3x stock funds, hides in T‑Bills, or rotates into Treasuries/U.S. dollar. It occasionally buys volatility (UVXY) when markets look overheated. High risk/volatility.
Plain English:
- It first asks: are stocks stronger than defensive utilities over ~6 months (a simple 0–100 “heat” score called RSI)?
- Then it checks if long‑term Treasuries are trending up or down (price vs a 6‑month average line, EMA).
- When stocks lead and bonds are weak: it buys 3x stock funds on sharp dips; if the market is red‑hot short‑term, it briefly buys a volatility fund (UVXY). If nothing is extreme, it splits money between: (1) picking 3x stock funds only when they look colder than bonds (else T‑Bills), and (2) a small tilt to tech or energy, depending on whether commodities have led lately.
- When stocks don’t lead: if bonds are weak it still runs the selective 3x‑vs‑T‑Bills engine; if bonds are strong it holds long Treasuries (TMF) or the U.S. dollar (UUP), whichever looks more “cold” short‑term.
Tickers in plain words: TECL/SPXL/UPRO/TQQQ/UDOW/SOXL = 3x bull versions of tech, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, semis; ERX = 2x energy; UVXY = bet on volatility spikes; BIL = T‑Bills; AGG = core bonds (reference); XLK = tech; DBC = broad commodities; XLU = utilities; TLT = long Treasuries; TMF = 3x Treasuries; UUP = U.S. dollar.
Potentially higher growth: out-of-sample annualized return ~29.6% vs SPY ~22.6%. But it comes with much larger drawdowns (~66% vs ~19%) and a lower risk-adjusted Sharpe, so suitable for swing-tolerant investors.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.68 | 1.24 | 0.2 | 0.45 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 576.27% | 14.77% | 1.36% | 5.73% | 0.91 | |
| 4,150,825.99% | 115.22% | -2.95% | 18.5% | 1.88 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$415,092,599.12Regulatory Fees
$1,244,215.00
Total Slippage
$8,914,446.32
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 18, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend vs mean reversion, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, volatility hedge, sector rotation, bonds vs cash, dollar/treasuries rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 0 assets in total
Ticker
Type