Base 2 Bull or Bonds
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
A rules-based switch that decides if stocks or defense should lead, then buys sharp dips in 3x stock funds, hides in T‑Bills, or rotates into Treasuries/U.S. dollar. It occasionally buys volatility (UVXY) when markets look overheated. High risk/volatility.
Plain English:
- It first asks: are stocks stronger than defensive utilities over ~6 months (a simple 0–100 “heat” score called RSI)?
- Then it checks if long‑term Treasuries are trending up or down (price vs a 6‑month average line, EMA).
- When stocks lead and bonds are weak: it buys 3x stock funds on sharp dips; if the market is red‑hot short‑term, it briefly buys a volatility fund (UVXY). If nothing is extreme, it splits money between: (1) picking 3x stock funds only when they look colder than bonds (else T‑Bills), and (2) a small tilt to tech or energy, depending on whether commodities have led lately.
- When stocks don’t lead: if bonds are weak it still runs the selective 3x‑vs‑T‑Bills engine; if bonds are strong it holds long Treasuries (TMF) or the U.S. dollar (UUP), whichever looks more “cold” short‑term.
Tickers in plain words: TECL/SPXL/UPRO/TQQQ/UDOW/SOXL = 3x bull versions of tech, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, semis; ERX = 2x energy; UVXY = bet on volatility spikes; BIL = T‑Bills; AGG = core bonds (reference); XLK = tech; DBC = broad commodities; XLU = utilities; TLT = long Treasuries; TMF = 3x Treasuries; UUP = U.S. dollar.
Out-of-sample edge: about 27.7% annualized returns vs 22.1% for the S&P, with smart hedges (T‑Bills, Treasuries, USD) and selective 3x equity exposure to ride leadership. Higher upside, but expect larger drawdowns in stressed markets.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 18, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend vs mean reversion, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, volatility hedge, sector rotation, bonds vs cash, dollar/treasuries rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 19 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
ERX
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks