A rules-based, multi-asset tactical strategy that toggles between tech exposure (QQQ and its levered/inverse options) and hedges (TLT and GLD) using short-term momentum signals (notably QQQ RSI) and trend checks. It includes a separate inflation-hedge module (No Inflation) that selects between bonds and gold via short/long-term momentum filters, and it uses equal-weight allocations within decision points with no frequent rebalancing. Leverage and inverse ETFs introduce additional risk. Overall, it seeks to capture tech momentum while hedging with bonds or gold, then adds a defensive tilt through a utilities exposure when signals warrant.

- The strategy is a rule-based system that does not continually rebalance; it evaluates a set of signals and then selects assets to hold based on those signals. - Core asset set: TLT (long-dated Treasuries), GLD (gold), QQQ (tech-heavy), QLD (2x QQQ), QID (inverse QQQ), and XLU (utilities sector). - Primary driver: QQQ momentum via RSI (relative strength index) on a 10‑day window. Depending on RSI readings, the system tilts toward different tech-related ETFs: • If the 10-day RSI of QQQ is very high (overbought), the model leans toward QID (inverse QQQ) to protect against a likely pullback. • If RSI signals are favorable to upside (e.g., RSI below a lower threshold and other conditions kick in), it may tilt toward QLD (2x QQQ) to amplify a positive momentum move. • In other cases, it may default to or mix in QQQ-based exposures with other hedges. - Hedge module: A separate branch deals with bonds vs gold (the “Bear - Bonds vs Gold” and “No Inflation” groups): • The strategy looks at bonds (TLT) versus gold (GLD) as inflation hedges or safe havens. • Within a sub-branch called “No Inflation,” it applies a short-term vs long-term momentum test on TLT (using a moving-average price comparison) to decide whether to emphasize GLD instead of bonds, or vice versa. The exact thresholds imply: if the shorter-term trend on TLT is stronger than its longer-term trend, GLD is considered; otherwise the other hedge is used. The explicit implementation uses short-term vs long-term trend checks and a performance-based selector between TLT and GLD. - A separate mechanism within the hedging logic ranks TLT and GLD by short-window cumulative return and selects the bottom-ranked option (i.e., the weaker performer over that short window) as part of the No Inflation decision. This appears to be a contrarian tilt to capture a rebound, though the exact intention depends on the interpretation of the sort and filter steps. - Equal-weighting: When the system is in a decision state that permits allocation, it uses an equal-weight approach across the chosen assets (wt-cash-equal) rather than targeting fixed percentages. This means each selected asset would get roughly the same share of exposure at that decision moment. - Rebalancing cadence: The plan specifies rebalance: none, with a corridor width of 0.01. In practical terms, this means the model doesn’t mechanically rebalance at a fixed frequency; it only changes holdings when a signal explicitly triggers a switch, and adjustments are made within a very narrow tolerance window. - Execution risk and caveats: The use of QLD and QID introduces high short-term risk due to leverage and daily reset effects. The confidence of the signals relies on how well RSI, EMA crossovers, and cumulative-return screens predict near-term moves in diverse market regimes. As with any rule-based system, performance depends on the quality of the backtest data, the stability of the signals, and the ability to handle regime changes. The complexity of the nested if-else logic also means this strategy could be sensitive to parameter choices and edge-case market conditions. - In plain terms: the strategy alternates among tech exposure, hedges in bonds and gold, and a utilities tilt based on short-term momentum signals. It aims to ride tech strength when it looks sustainable, protect against drawdowns with hedges, and dip into gold or bonds depending on inflation expectations, all while not constantly rebalancing portfolios.

Out-of-sample, this strategy targets higher upside (33.16% vs 22.28% SPY) with Calmar ~1.68, blending tech momentum with hedges (bonds/gold) for strong risk-adjusted returns—though leverage adds complexity and drawdown risk.