Barebones FTLT v3 - 14 Jul 2006
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A rules-based, risk-on/risk-off strategy driven by Nasdaq‑100 signals. It buys 2x long QQQ when weak or leading, flips to 2x inverse when overheated, and hides in Treasuries or gold when defensive. Uses volatility, RSI, and trend filters (2x ETFs = higher risk).
Trades: QLD (2x up Nasdaq‑100), QID (2x down), TLT (US Treasuries), GLD (gold). QQQ & XLU (utilities) guide signals.
- If QQQ 10‑day volatility is high, hold TLT.
- If QQQ very weak (RSI<30) buy QLD; very hot (RSI>80) buy QID.
- Else if QQQ’s 126‑day RSI > XLU, buy QLD; otherwise use TLT/GLD: if bonds trend up (10>200‑day EMA) pick the 5‑day laggard of TLT vs GLD; else GLD.
RSI: 0–100 recent strength. EMA: trend.
Out-of-sample: 33.16% annual return vs SPY 22.28%; Calmar ~1.68; max drawdown ~19.75% vs ~18.76% for SPY. A volatility-aware, trend-driven strategy that captures upside while offering downside protection.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.71 | 0.2 | 0.44 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 677.19% | 11% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.63 | |
| 99,735.94% | 42.13% | 6.43% | 9.2% | 1.28 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$9,983,593.53Regulatory Fees
$25,509.71
Total Slippage
$172,374.33
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 8, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 1%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend-following, momentum, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total