*Bar Bell Moving Average Crossover
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily-rebalanced, trend-driven strategy that tilts between levered and non-levered sector ETFs (Tech and Health Care) only when the broad market is in an uptrend, using 12/26 EMA crossovers to decide between TECL/CURE vs XLK/XLV, with cash when conditions aren’t favorable.
- Check if the market is in an uptrend by comparing SPY price to its 200-day moving average. If SPY is above, proceed; otherwise hold cash.
- For Tech: compare EMA12(XLK) to EMA26(XLK). If EMA12 > EMA26, pick TECL (3x tech bull); else pick XLK.
- For Health Care: compare EMA12(XLV) to EMA26(XLV). If EMA12 > EMA26, pick CURE (3x health bull); else pick XLV.
- Invest evenly (barbell) in the two selected assets and rebalance daily.
- Additional sub-paths may consider QQQ/TQQQ momentum and BSV as hedges under certain conditions, but the core rule is the two-sleeve tilt following the EMA crosses and the SPY trend filter.
Out-of-sample Bar Bell Trend strategy delivers superior risk-adjusted gains vs SPY: Sharpe ~1.11, Calmar ~2.21, and ~53% annualized return vs ~16%. Invests only in uptrends (12/26 EMA) in Tech/Health, with cash when SPY fades.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 14, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Equity strategy, trend following, moving-average crossover, sector rotation, leverage etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLV
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks