A daily, rules-based, multi-asset ballast strategy that rotates among bonds, volatility hedges, commodities, and energy exposure using simple momentum and volatility rules to control risk and seek balanced upside.

- Daily decision process: Each day, the system evaluates several blocks (Bond, Volatility, Commodity, Natural Gas, Oil) and decides which to fund and by how much. Each block has a target weight, and the blocks collectively determine the final allocation. If the signals are not favorable for a block, cash is spread across eligible assets as a cushion. - Bond Block (TMF/TMV/BIL): This block decides whether to tilt toward long-dated Treasuries (TMF), toward their inverse (TMV), or toward cash-like Treasuries (BIL). The decision rules are built around short-term momentum indicators (RSI over a 10-day window) and price trend checks (moving-average crossovers). If short-term momentum in TMF is weak (RSI under a threshold like 32), TMF gets allocated; if momentum is not supportive, the system looks at longer-term price trends and a cash-like alternative (BIL). A symmetric logic applies to the TMV leg (the inverse-bond exposure) using short/long momentum and price signals. The Bond Block carries part of the Ballast Block’s total weight (about 45% in this design) and is itself a composition of TMF and TMV decisions. - Volatility Block: This block looks at market hedges that can behave differently in turmoil (things like SVXY, VIXM, BTAL, GLD). It ranks or filters these assets by realized volatility (standard deviation of returns) over a 20-day window and selects the two assets with the lowest volatility to own, aiming to reduce risk while providing some hedging. The Volatility Block accounts for about 30% of the Ballast allocation. - Commodity Block (DBC and XME focus, with Energy-ties): This block allocates between broad commodities (DBC) and metals/mining exposure (XME) based on both short-term and longer-term momentum indicators. The logic uses RSI checks on the underlyings and moving-average price crossovers to determine if DBC or XME should be favored, with sub-blocks for “Short-Term Momentum” and “Long-Term Momentum.” The idea is to ride commodity cycles and diversify away from equities, but only when momentum signals confirm a trend. The Commodity Block contributes about 25% of the Ballast allocation. - Natural Gas Block (KOLD and related filters): This block uses energy-related exposures, including KOLD (an inverse natural gas ETF) and thresholds tied to momentum/RSI signals on related energy assets. The rules gate whether to hold KOLD (or avoid it) based on short-term momentum and trend checks, with a broader goal of smoothing energy exposure and adding a contrarian tilt when energy markets show certain conditions. This block carries part of the Ballast weight as well (e.g., around 50% in the nested design, depending on the sub-block). - Oil Block (DBO-focused rules): This block uses oil exposure via DBO (oil futures tracking) and applies its own RSI and moving-average checks to decide when to tilt toward oil exposure versus cash alternatives or other hedges. The Oil Block has its own weight in the Ballast structure (around 40% of the portfolio in the provided layout). - Cash-equal fallback and overall architecture: Within each block, there are cash-equaling steps that ensure liquidity and risk control. If a case isn’t triggered, cash is allocated evenly to assets within the block or across blocks to maintain diversification. The top-level Ballast Block is described as “daily rebalance” and groups all sub-blocks under a common weighting scheme to deliver a balanced overall portfolio. The result is a diversified, rules-based overlay intended to reduce drawdowns while preserving upside when several asset classes trend in the same direction. - What this means for a layperson: You aren’t simply buying a handful of popular stocks. Instead, you’re building a smart, diversified mix that can shift toward bonds, hedges against market turbulence, commodities, and energy depending on what the market is doing on a given day. The strategy uses simple, transparent triggers (RSI levels, moving-average crossovers, and volatility screens) rather than opaque models, and it rebalances every day so the weights reflect current signals rather than yesterday’s data. Important caveats: it uses leverage in the bond section (TMF/TMV), which amplifies gains and losses; many signals rely on short windows (e.g., 10–20 days), so performance can swing with market regimes; and like all rules-based strategies, it trades off simplicity for the ability to automate decisions.

Risk-aware, diversified, daily-rebalanced strategy with strong downside protection: out-of-sample max drawdown ~6.5% vs SPY ~18.8%, Calmar ~1.50, and solid risk-adjusted gains—lower volatility and greater resilience than the S&P 500.