Balanced Portfolio (Quarterly) with Recession Case
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A trend-based, risk-on/risk-off mix: when the S&P 500 weakens (below its 200‑day average), it shifts mostly into long Treasuries and gold; otherwise it holds a balanced 5‑way blend of US stocks, Treasuries, and gold.
It checks daily if SPY (an S&P 500 fund) is below its 200‑day moving average (the average closing price over ~10 months).
If weak: go defensive—70% VGLT (long‑term US Treasuries), 20% SGOL (gold), 10% VTI (total US stocks).
Else: hold 20% each—VTI (US stocks), VIOV (US small‑value stocks), VGLT (long Treasuries), VGSH (short Treasuries), SGOL (gold). Rebalanced automatically.
Out-of-sample, this strategy beats the S&P 500 on risk, not just returns: Sharpe 2.91 vs 2.68, Calmar 7.57, max drawdown 3.28% vs 5.07%, plus positive alpha from diversified stocks, Treasuries and gold.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 716.12% | 14.55% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.88 | |
| 164.21% | 6.49% | 3.03% | 5.75% | 0.66 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$26,421.39Regulatory Fees
$96.89
Total Slippage
$179.37
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, multi-asset, stocks-bonds-gold, 200-day moving average
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total