A market-timing strategy that shifts between aggressive stock bets, defensive bonds/cash, and hedges based on whether tech markets look strong, weak, panicky, oversold, or overheated.

This strategy first asks: is the tech-heavy market calm, panicky, washed out, or overheated? If markets are very jumpy, it moves toward safer holdings like bonds, cash-like T-bills, the U.S. dollar, or funds that rise when stocks fall. If tech has fallen hard, it makes a short-term rebound bet in tech and semiconductors. If tech has run up too far, it shifts to crash hedges. Otherwise, it uses a 2-part market test: growth stocks vs utilities, and corporate bonds vs T-bills. Strong readings lead to more stock exposure; weak readings lead to defensive or bearish positions.

Out-of-sample shows higher growth: ~24.8% annualized vs ~18.2% for the S&P, with Calmar ~1.18. Regime-switching hedges target bigger upside with risk control—though it can be more volatile and endure deeper drawdowns than the S&P.