A dynamic, rule-driven leveraged-ETF basket strategy that rotates between aggressive bets (3x leveraged tech/broad-market ETFs) and safety hedges (USD, Treasuries, volatility/index hedges) using a 5-day SMA-based screen and momentum filters to improve return with controlled risk relative to the S&P 500.

Think of it as a decision tree that picks an evolving bag of leveraged ETFs to try to beat the market without taking big losses. When the model sees a short-term uptrend and stable volatility, it tends to load up on leveraged bets that magnify stock-market gains (for example, 3x tech or broad market bets). When signals weaken or risk rises, it shifts toward safety: dollar exposure, long treasuries, or hedges that profit when volatility jumps. A core rule is to standardize baskets by a 5-day moving average screen, then choose the top or bottom performers within that window. It also uses hedges (volatility products like UVXY, and inverse/short funds like SH, SQQQ) to limit downside. There are multiple variant baskets (V3.1, V3.2, V2.x, etc.) tested to see which mix of levered bets and hedges delivers the best Calmar ratio. In short: daily-ish checks of short-term trends and volatility decide which LETF mix to hold, with safety nets ready if markets turn soured. The tool targets exposure to technology and growth through TQQQ/TECL/SOXL, broad market exposure via SPXL/SSO, while using bonds (TLT, TMF, TMV), currency (USDU), and commodity/energy proxies (UCO, UGE-like constructs) to diversify risk. The end goal is higher return than SPY with lower drawdown, applying disciplined risk controls instead of a static allocation.

Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~80% annualized return vs SPY’s ~22%, with higher Sharpe (1.33) and Calmar (2.32). Dynamic leveraged ETFs plus hedges chase upside while dampening drawdown, delivering stronger risk-adjusted outperformance.