Anti-Inflation/Rising Interest Rate Ruler by Thinh Ba Nguyen
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A rules-based plan that flees to gold/inflation hedges when stocks drop, shifts to a USD+gold mix when rates jump, and otherwise rides upside with one 3x tech/market ETF. SPY/QQQ/TLT act as tripwires; the portfolio is often concentrated.
It watches 3 tripwires. 1) Stocks tumbling: if SPY (S&P 500) fell >8% in ~50 days or QQQ (Nasdaq‑100) >5.5% in ~10, move to an inflation hedge—whichever is moving most: gold (IAU), a gold stock (FNV), or an inflation‑expectations ETF (RINF). 2) Else, if TLT (long Treasuries) fell >3% in ~10 days, hold a defensive mix of US dollar (UUP) and gold (IAU). 3) Otherwise, go risk‑on: ~85% in the strongest 3x bull ETF (TQQQ/UPRO/TECL/SOXL).
Out-of-sample annualized return ~40.6% vs S&P ~20.4%, but drawdowns ~62% vs ~19%. Hedge to gold/USD during rate shocks and leverage in uptrends to pursue higher upside with built-in risk controls.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 28, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 6%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, inflation hedge, risk-off, volatility-based selection, leveraged etfs, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
FNV
Franco-Nevada Corporation
Stocks
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
RINF
ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks