Anti-Inflation/Rising Interest Rate Ruler by Thinh Ba Nguyen
Today’s Change (Apr 14, 2026)
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About
A rules-based plan that flees to gold/inflation hedges when stocks drop, shifts to a USD+gold mix when rates jump, and otherwise rides upside with one 3x tech/market ETF. SPY/QQQ/TLT act as tripwires; the portfolio is often concentrated.
It watches 3 tripwires. 1) Stocks tumbling: if SPY (S&P 500) fell >8% in ~50 days or QQQ (Nasdaq‑100) >5.5% in ~10, move to an inflation hedge—whichever is moving most: gold (IAU), a gold stock (FNV), or an inflation‑expectations ETF (RINF). 2) Else, if TLT (long Treasuries) fell >3% in ~10 days, hold a defensive mix of US dollar (UUP) and gold (IAU). 3) Otherwise, go risk‑on: ~85% in the strongest 3x bull ETF (TQQQ/UPRO/TECL/SOXL).
Out-of-sample annualized return ~40.6% vs SPY ~20.4%. Regime-switching to inflation hedges and 3x bulls delivers outsized upside, with hedges protecting on downturns. Sharpe ~0.85; max drawdown ~62%—higher upside, higher risk than the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.37 | 1.52 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 553.55% | 14.19% | 3.88% | -0.84% | 0.88 | |
| 39,388.97% | 52.59% | -4.98% | -18.04% | 1.02 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,948,897.10Regulatory Fees
$6,388.63
Total Slippage
$40,419.53
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 28, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 6%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, inflation hedge, risk-off, volatility-based selection, leveraged etfs, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
FNV
Franco-Nevada Corporation
Stocks
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
RINF
ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks