Anti-chop QLD For The Long Term
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A long-term, rule-based strategy that switches among QQQ, its inverse (PSQ), a double-QQQ lever (QLD), SPY, and SHY to ride uptrends, hedge overbought conditions, and defend during choppy or down markets, aiming for growth with controlled drawdowns.
- Determine market regime: Is the broad market (SPY) above its 200-day moving average? If yes, treat as uptrend; if no, treat as non-uptrend.
- Uptrend rule: Use QQQ (Nasdaq-100) for growth unless QQQ looks extremely overbought (QQQ 10-day RSI above ~81). In that overbought case, shift toward PSQ (short QQQ) to reduce risk.
- Downside/unclear regime: If SPY is not in uptrend, look for oversold momentum on QQQ (RSI below ~30) to possibly use QLD (2x QQQ) to catch a rebound; otherwise lean toward defensive assets (SPY or SHY) as appropriate.
- Within more complex branches, the system weighs among QQQ, PSQ, SHY and SPY based on short-term moving averages and RSI signals, effectively blending growth exposure with hedges and safety positions.
- No fixed rebalancing: the algorithm decides allocations when conditions are evaluated, aiming to adapt to changing regimes rather than sticking to a calendar schedule.
- The approach uses explicit assets for hedging (PSQ) and doubling exposure (QLD) to exploit momentum shifts, while SHY provides ballast in riskier periods.
Out-of-sample, this strategy seeks higher growth than the S&P: ~32.4% annualized return vs 23.3%, with Sharpe ~1.31 and Calmar ~1.28. Uses dynamic hedges (PSQ) and leverage (QLD) for bigger upside, though drawdowns can be higher (~25% vs ~19%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 0.74 | 0.36 | 0.6 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 656.16% | 10.84% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.63 | |
| 43,756.9% | 36.26% | 0.33% | 0.61% | 1.4 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,385,690.01Regulatory Fees
$5,832.37
Total Slippage
$37,694.39
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 4, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 12%
Type
Stocks
Category
Long-term, momentum, trend-following, hedging, anti-chop, etf allocations