Anti-chop QLD For The Long Term
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Rules-based switching among QLD (2x Nasdaq‑100), QQQ, PSQ (inverse QQQ), and SHY using a market trend filter plus short-term “heat” (RSI) and moving averages. Aim: ride uptrends, buy deep dips, and get defensive to avoid chop in declines.
1) Big trend check: Is SPY above its 200‑day average (price vs its last‑200‑day average)? If yes, hold QLD (2x Nasdaq‑100) unless QQQ’s 10‑day RSI—a 0–100 “heat” score of recent ups vs downs—is >81; then hold PSQ (inverse QQQ).
2) If SPY is below: if QQQ’s RSI<30 (washed‑out), buy QLD for a bounce; else blend QQQ with PSQ or SHY (1–3yr Treasuries). As 4‑ & 6‑day averages move above the 20‑day, increase QQQ. Pick PSQ vs SHY by the higher 10‑day RSI.
Value proposition: Out-of-sample, this regime-driven strategy delivers ~58.4% annualized return with Calmar ~1.61, outperforming SPY on risk-adjusted upside. It rides Nasdaq uptrends via QLD/QQQ and defends in chop with PSQ/SHY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.41 | 0.64 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 656.16% | 10.84% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.63 | |
| 281,570.99% | 49.78% | 0.12% | -0.61% | 1.34 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$28,167,098.98Regulatory Fees
$27,871.64
Total Slippage
$189,534.96
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 11, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 12%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, momentum, mean reversion, market timing, nasdaq-100, leveraged etfs, risk management