Anti-chop QLD For The Long Term
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Tech‑focused timing. In long uptrends, ride a 2× Nasdaq fund (QLD) unless it’s overheated, then briefly hedge (PSQ). In downtrends, rotate among QQQ, PSQ, and SHY using short‑term trend checks; buy sharp dips with QLD.
Tickers: SPY=S&P 500; QQQ=big US tech (Nasdaq‑100); QLD=2× QQQ; PSQ=up when QQQ falls; SHY=short‑term Treasuries. RSI is a 0–100 “heat meter.”
- If SPY is above its 200‑day average: hold QLD, unless QQQ’s RSI>81 (very hot) → switch to PSQ.
- If SPY is below: compare QQQ to its 20‑day and tiny (4/6‑day) averages. When weak, favor PSQ/SHY; as it improves, add QQQ. If RSI<30 (washed‑out), use QLD for a rebound. Between PSQ and SHY, pick whichever is stronger lately.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~58% vs SPY ~25%. Regime-aware leverage in tech uptrends with hedges in dips; Calmar ~1.61. Expect larger drawdowns (~36% vs ~19%) and added complexity.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.41 | 0.64 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 672.33% | 10.98% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.63 | |
| 289,155.25% | 50.09% | 0.99% | -5.44% | 1.34 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$28,925,524.98Regulatory Fees
$27,871.64
Total Slippage
$189,534.96
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 11, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 12%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, mean reversion, nasdaq-100 focus, leveraged/inverse etfs, regime filter, risk management