Adjusted Balanced Portfolio with Recession Case (50D)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A daily trend check on the S&P 500 toggles between a bond‑heavy “recession” mix and a diversified ~60/40 stock‑bond mix. Stocks emphasize value and small‑caps across U.S., international, and emerging markets; bonds are U.S. Treasuries and TIPS.
Each day it checks if the S&P 500 fund (SPY) is above its 50‑day average (the average closing price over ~2½ months). If yes, it uses a bond‑heavy mix (mostly short/intermediate U.S. Treasuries and some inflation‑linked Treasuries) with small slices of U.S., small‑cap, real estate, and international small‑value stocks.
If not, it switches to a broader ~60/40: about 60% in U.S., international, value and small‑cap stocks (plus real estate and emerging markets) and ~40% in Treasuries and short‑term inflation‑protected bonds.
Out-of-sample, this strategy shows superior risk-adjusted returns with lower downside: Sharpe 3.28 vs 2.68, Calmar 6.33, max drawdown 2.06% vs 5.07%, beta ~0.21, and ~13% annualized return. More disciplined, diversified exposure than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.39 | 0.68 | 0.83 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.86% | 11.01% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.68 | |
| 21.89% | 4.51% | -2.51% | 1.8% | 0.58 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$12,189.34Regulatory Fees
$31.03
Total Slippage
$70.65
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend filter, balanced, value tilt, small-cap tilt, global equities, treasuries, tips, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVDE
Avantis International Equity ETF
Stocks
AVDV
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUS
Avantis U.S. Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
DFIV
Dimensional International Value ETF
Stocks
FNDC
Schwab Fundamental International Small Equity ETF
Stocks
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
Stocks
RPV
Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF
Stocks
SPTI
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
Stocks